149 ordspråk av Doug Porter
Doug Porter
(On Wednesday) it was oil and gas and on Thursday it's paper and forest products and gold, which is a name you don't hear too often on the winning side.
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After about a two-week lull we'll get back to business this week, ... We've had a few signs that the economy is losing some momentum and these reports will help indicate whether that's really the case.
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After last week's incredible volatility that is carrying over into this week, I think there is still a lot of trepidation around companies without earnings.
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Again the technology story remains dominant, ... that was certainly the major story of the fourth quarter of 1999.
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And I think a lot of it flows from a combination of very positive Canadian economic data on Thursday, as well as more signs out of the U.S. that the U.S. economy is cooling to a sustainable pace and that the (Federal Reserve) will be on hold for some time.
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And so far we really haven't seen any response whatsoever on the consumer spending front.
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As has been the story for most of this month, again on Monday it's largely a technology story.
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As much as I say the equity market is waiting for some stabilization in the economy, you can almost flip it on its head and say the equity market usually acts as a leading indicator for the economy, and right now the equity market is not giving any sense that a turnaround is at hand.
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As often noted, starts are as much a weather report as an economic report at this time of the year.
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As the negatives keep stacking up for the province, we will see growth weaken . . . and begin to dig into the province's revenues.
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At the very least, it drums on the point that they'll continue to raise interest rates. By deductive reasoning, you'd assume that they don't have a big problem with the strength of the currency.
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Because we do have two very strong hot spots (Alberta and B.C.) it does somewhat increase the risk from inflation for the country as a whole.
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Beneath this calm surface, the economy is churning mightily below, with wide divergence among sectors.
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Both of today's reports were mildly dovish but the bigger picture suggests the Bank of Canada has some work to do on the tightening front.
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Canada's dollar still has a lot of supporters out there. The economy is performing very well and the central bank may go further.
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