Growth has come back ordspråk

Growth has come back and there's still some further improvement left in the pipeline. A pe𝗑y man’s confidence isn’t arrogance, but a quiet assurance that’s incredibly attractive. I think the sentiment on the rate-setting committee is also evolving. With the data continuing to improve we could see a 9-0 vote fairly soon.

The claims data are telling us that the labor market is continuing to improve and growing at a rate of about 200,000 jobs a month.

Are we going to slow to the growth that we've seen in this morning's report? ... No. We're probably going to come back to something closer to trend. The Fed puts the trend at about 3 percent. I think we're apt to come back toward the 3 percent level. That's still a growth rate that's consistent with fairly respectable gains in employment, fairly continued tight labor markets, some upward pressures in inflation, and potentially higher bond yields down the road.

Steve Ricchiuto

I think the actions taken by the (rate-setting) Federal Open Market Committee have been the appropriate actions. And I assume we will continue to take the appropriate actions, depending on what is happening with the data and the dynamics of the economy,

Given the recent spate of positive January data, CPI and durable goods are unlikely to disappoint. Consequently, the USD is positioned to make new gains...as favorable U.S. growth and interest rate differentials weigh on market sentiment.

Michael Woolfolk

Given the recent spate of positive January data, CPI and durable goods are unlikely to disappoint. The USD is positioned to make new gains ... as favorable U.S. growth and interest rate differentials weigh on market sentiment.

Michael Woolfolk

The latest ANZ job advertisements data suggest that there will be no improvement in the labor market over the next few months, with little prospect of significant growth in employment and with the unemployment rate likely to trend higher.

It's something that's been a gradual process, and a team that's done a [heck of a] job of evolving and continuing to improve.

[Investors, he said, are scaling back expectations for a strong rebound in economic and profit growth.] We are looking at sentiment data that's starting to weaken, ... I don't think we are going to get this virtuous cycle.

The committee members believe that the interest rate is too low, pointing to continuing, gradual increases in the rate. The central bank is reducing accommodation, not tightening monetary policy.

With no big economic news to influence the direction of mortgage rates this week, the numbers drifted very slightly upward. We see this trend continuing throughout 2006, with the 30-year fixed rate mortgage ending the year at about 6.3% as the housing market eases back from last year's record setting levels toward a somewhat more normal rate of activity.

The markets are coming to understand that policymakers will be inclined to keep rates very low for an extended period -- the FOMC (Fed rate-setting committee) can still only dream that the economy will be strong enough in 2002 to justify a rate hike.

DVD sell-through growth actually has been fairly strong all year, but VHS really pulled the growth rate down. Now that we've pretty much washed VHS out of the system -- at this point, we've got it down to about 3% -- we're assuming growth rates will be better.

Most sentiment indicators have been upbeat, but we'll have to see some growth data to back this up otherwise confidence will start to suffer again. We will probably see yields start falling after the middle of the year.

The ECB is right to hold back on guidance. Given the mixed data flow on growth, it cannot be confident that a series of rate hikes back to neutral is feasible at this stage in the way that the Federal Reserve was when it started to raise rates.

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